Investment strategy of power equipment industry in the second half of 2022
Writer： Hengfeng you electric Time：2022-07-11 views：times
1. Overview: the keynote of steady growth is becoming stronger and stronger, and the power grid investment is increased during the "14th five year plan"
Since 2022, steady growth has become an important proposition, and power grid investment projects are expected to increase. Building a new power system with new energy as the main body puts forward higher requirements for the power grid. According to the two grid action plan, UHV and intelligent distribution network have become the construction focus. During the "14th five year plan" period, the planned investment of the State Grid and the South grid was nearly 3trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 580billion yuan, reaching a new high. In 2022, the disturbance of the epidemic situation led to the delay of investment progress, the increase of economic pressure and the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, and the follow-up planning projects are expected to be implemented quickly.
2. UHV: approval and construction are expected to accelerate, and high barriers create a stable head pattern
UHV has the advantages of large capacity, long distance, high efficiency, low loss and low unit cost. According to the "fourteenth five year plan", the State Grid plans to start a total of 13 UHV lines with "10 AC and 3 DC" in 2022, and the planned projects are expected to be approved. Considering the construction period of UHV (18-24 months), the number of approved lines for construction from the second half of 2022 to 2023 may be in the peak period. UHV has high industrial barriers, and the leading supplier of main equipment has a solid position, which will benefit from the rapid implementation of UHV projects and the expansion of demand for main equipment.
3. Distribution network: the new power system has derived new requirements, and intelligence has become the focus of construction
The increase in the proportion of new energy power generation and the change in power load structure have led to a significant increase in the complexity of the power grid structure, and there is still room for improvement in indicators such as power supply reliability and line loss rate. The new power system has derived new requirements, and the intelligent distribution network has become the focus of construction. In the "14th five year plan", it is proposed to speed up the intelligent transformation of power grid infrastructure and the construction of smart microgrid. 48% (320billion yuan) of the investment in the "14th five year plan" of China Southern Power Grid is used for the upgrading and transformation of distribution network, and the related targets of distribution network are expected to usher in high-speed performance growth.
4. Investment advice
1) The head structure of UHV main equipment is stable, focusing on Guodian Nari, XJ electric, TBEA and China XD; 2) Companies with technical barriers to distribution network intelligent equipment and services focus on the innovation of Yijiahe, honglida, Hangzhou Colin and Zhiyang; 3) Domestic smart meters are facing the replacement cycle. The new standard improves the value of a single meter, focusing on Haixing power, Samsung Medical, Linyang energy, etc;
Risk statement
1. The risk of delayed implementation of power grid investment projects;
The downstream of China's power grid is monopolized by the South China Power Grid and the South China power grid. If the investment project of the power grid company is delayed, it will affect the bid winning amount of equipment manufacturers in the UHV, distribution network intelligence and smart meter industry, and then affect the company's performance.
2. Risk of continuous price rise of raw materials;
In the cost composition of UHV main equipment, distribution network column switches and smart meters, raw materials account for the majority. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, it will bring cost pressure and affect the company's profits.
3. The risk of intensified market competition.
The demand side of the power grid industry is monopolized by the State Grid and the South grid. The State Grid adopts the form of segmented unified bidding. Therefore, a large number of enterprises participate in the bidding and the competition is fierce. If the product technology threshold is lowered or the industry prospect is good to attract more enterprises, the market competition will intensify and the profit margin will decline.
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